The International Crisis Group has published its monthly assessment of actual and potential conflicts around the world, and the results show that more conflict situations grew worse than grew better during July.
The assessment, published in the Group’s Crisis Watch bulletin, tracks conflict situations that are ongoing and areas or regions where potential conflicts could erupt.
On the Decline
According to the Group’s assessment, six watched areas deteriorated during the last month: Afghanistan, non-Kashmir India, Kashmir, Mongolia, the North Caucasus (not including Chechnya), and Somalia.
A lot of attention has been given to Afghanistan of late, with the United States calling on its European allies to increase their efforts in the fight against remnants of the Taliban and Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda terrorist organization. The country has suffered from significant increases in violence over the past several months, prompting calls for increased troop levels as the situation in Iraq continues to stabilize.
Somalia continues to struggle with not only tribal or factional splits, but also with a persisting threat from Islamic militants determined to regain control of the African nation. Increased levels of violence in Somalia have included attacks on humanitarian relief workers and international assistance has been almost nonexistent.
Getting Better
Three conflict situations around the world improved last month, the Crisis Group’s assessment concludes, including Colombia, Mali, and Serbia. The arrest and extradition of Radovan Karadzic, who has long been wanted in connection with war crimes allegations, was seen as a sign of good faith from the Serbian government to the member states of the European Union.
In Columbia, government pressure on the FARC rebel group has led to a weakening of the anti-government organization and the continued strengthening of the Columbian government’s standing not only among the Columbian people, but in the region and in the eyes of the international community as well.
Maintaining the Status Quo
Some of the more notable areas highlighted by the Crisis Group’s assessment as remaining relatively unchanged included Bosnia, Chechnya, China, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel and the Palestinian Territories, Kosovo, Lebanon, Pakistan, Sudan, Syria, Turkey, and Zimbabwe.
Some of these areas remain extremely fragile, though, including China (which has been launching severe crackdowns on dissidents in the run-up to the Olympics), Iraq (which continues to experience significantly decreased levels of violence even after the last of American “surge” troops withdrew), Pakistan (which is launching increasingly bold military operations against Islamic militants in the region bordering Afghanistan), and Turkey (which has been experiencing an internal governmental struggle between the ruling Islamist party and secularists trying to ban the government’s majority from the political scene).
