North Korea and the Nuclear Threat

The ambitions of the world's most reclusive country

Jun 21, 2009

The world's most reclusive country, is once again defying the international community - reaffirming its isolationist policies and amplifying the nuclear threat.

North Korea is once again working at building up its nuclear capabilities, opposing strong international condemnation of its actions and flouting the many United Nations Security Council Resolutions and international treaties on nuclear non-proliferation and its defiant ambitions.

The History of North Korea’s Isolationist Policies

North Korea, was essentially a peaceful, independent kingdom until 1905, when it was formally annexed by Japan. It was after its annexation that the country began spiralling into turmoil.

When Japan eventually surrendered, the political ideologies of the north and south, driven by Soviet occupation in the north and US forces in the south, had polarised the two Koreas beyond unification. By 1948, the idea of unification became a distant dream and Kim Sung-Il, the late father of current leader Kim Jong-Il was elected Prime Minister.

Sung-Il eventually began a process of militarisation, which then led the country away from the Marxist Communism of the past, to a modified version which he called Juche. The core of this doctrine essentially called for North Korea to become self-sufficient in all aspects of life. Sung-Il’s policies marked the beginning of North Korea’s retreat away from the rest of the world.

Wedged in an ideological corner, political and economic relations of the communist state consequently deteriorated significantly in the 1980’s and the country began to falter. While other communist countries fired up economic reform, Sung-Il’s intractable policies saw international trade decline and the country became stuck in a political logjam.

Following Sung-Il’s death in 1994, Kim Jong-Il became the de facto leader of North Korea. This succession made Kim Jong-Il the first hard-line communist state to pass leadership from father to son.

The threat of a nuclear stand-off, reminiscent but more pungent than that during the Cold War, is continually emerging between the United States and North Korea.

The idea of North Korea as a ‘Rogue State’ was first introduced by former US President George W Bush in 2001. Bush’s doctrine of containment, later termed the ‘Bush Doctrine’, placed the label on North Korea, along with several other states, because of the threat of proliferation of ‘weapons of mass destruction’ (WMD’s).

The idea was dismissed by Kim as “completely groundless”. In 2002, however, relations hit another blow when Kim decided to reactivate North Korea’s nuclear reactor and expel weapons inspectors amidst assumptions of its nuclear capabilities.

Despite intensive diplomatic efforts by world leaders North Korea has continued its hostile acts of aggression. Following a sequence of missile launches and its first nuclear detonation in 2006, Pyongyang declared its intention to create a ‘nuclear deterrent’ and in early April 2009 defied Security Council Resolution 1718, launching a long-range missile capable of holding a nuclear warhead.

Sparking further international fears over a nuclear attack from North Korea, it then went ahead and detonated its second underground nuclear device on May 25, 2009. In retaliation, the international community placed further sanctions on North Korea and in a mission to stop revenue for North Korea’s nuclear and missile arms sectors, the UN Security Council has since agreed to even tighter cargo inspections, stricter arms embargoes and new targeted financial curbs.

The nuclear threat from North Korea is growing, however. The most recent speculation is on the possibility of North Korea firing a nuclear missile toward Hawaii in the near future. US President Barack Obama has assured the American people that if this should happen, the US military and Administration is prepared for any contingencies.

Some analysts say that the recent launch was a harsh assertion by Kim responding to questions about his ability to lead the communist dynasty, following an alleged stroke in August 2008.

Just days after the recent missile launch, Kim Jong-Il was re-elected Chairman of the National Defense Commission by the North Korea’s Parliament on April 9, making it Kim’s third term in the job.

Following recent rumours about his ill health there have been many speculations about the fate of the regime and who will succeed Kim, now 67. Continual conjecture about whether or not the succession will be hereditary has been muted by a lack of intelligence and rumours of strained family relations between Kim and his three sons – Kim Jong-Nam, Kim Jong-Chol and Kim Jong-Un. Though the latest rumours according to reports in South Korea are that Kim Jong-Un, the youngest of the three sons has been named as Kim’s successor.

What is almost certain though is that regardless of who Kim chooses as the next leader, little is likely to change, the nuclear threat is likely to grow and we are even more unlikely to see North Korea renounce its isolationist policies and rejoin the international community.

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